Argentina captain Lionel Messi is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or with a 31.7% probability, according to Polymarket, ahead of Sunday’s World Cup final against Spain.
Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal is in second place with 30.9%, while England captain Harry Kane has a 13.5% chance and France’s Ousmane Dembele is at 3.1%.
Messi provided two assists in Argentina’s 2-1 semi-final victory over England, boosting his chances. The Ballon d’Or winner will be announced at a gala on October 26. The World Cup final between Argentina and Spain could significantly influence the final rankings.
Key Points:
Lionel Messi leads the Ballon d’Or race with 31.7% probability.
Lamine Yamal is close behind with a 30.9% chance of winning.
Harry Kane is third with a 13.5% probability.
Ousmane Dembele has a 3.1% chance in fourth place.
The World Cup outcome could significantly impact the rankings.
Sunday’s World Cup final between Argentina and Spain, which could determine the Ballon d’Or winner
